How Russia Loses 40 Artillery Systems, 27 APVs, and 1 Aircraft in a Day

Russia continues to suffer losses in the war of aggression against Ukraine, losing 1,330 soldiers, 27 armored combat vehicles, 11 tanks, and an aircraft over the past 24 hours alone.

Russian forces lost 40 artillery systems, 27 armored personnel vehicles, and one jet in the past day, Ukraine's military said on Thursday.

In an update posted to social media, Ukraine said Russia had lost a total of 12,860 artillery pieces and 14,748 armored personnel vehicles since the conflict began in February 2022. Newsweek couldn't independently verify Ukraine's tally and emailed the Russian defense ministry for comment. Russia doesn't give updates on its losses, and experts are cautious about statistics put forward by both sides.

Late on Wednesday, Ukraine's General Staff said its fighters had destroyed a Russian Su-25 jet in fighting close to the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk. The figures released on Thursday included the loss of one Russian aircraft, increasing Ukraine's count of downed Russian jets to 355 since the outbreak of full-scale war.

Ukraine and Western sources have said fighting on the eastern front lines, including east to Pokrovsk, is blazing on despite Russia's offensive on Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. Pokrovsk sits west of the former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka, captured by Russia in February, and is a hotspot for clashes.

Moscow's defense ministry said on Thursday that Ukraine had lost more than 600 aircraft since February 2022, as well as 9,771 field artillery and mortar guns. This also couldn't be independently verified.

Last month, Leo Docherty, Britain's minister of state for the armed forces, said U.K. intelligence indicated Moscow had lost over 10,000 armored vehicles, including around 3,000 main battle tanks. Russia has lost approximately 109 fixed-wing aircraft, he added, as well as more than 1,500 artillery systems. He said this equipment had been destroyed, abandoned, or captured by Ukraine.

Reports from Ukraine's military, and Russian and Ukrainian media, indicate that Kyiv has likely destroyed at least six Russian aircraft of various types, including MiG-31 and Su-25 jets, since May 14.

Over the weekend, Ukraine's SBU security service damaged a Russian Su-27 jet during an attack on Russia's Kushchyovskaya air base, independent Russian outlet Astra reported. Separately, on Saturday, Ukraine's 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, fighting on the eastern front, said its fighters had shot down a Russian Su-25.

Satellite imagery published by U.S. space technology company Maxar appeared to show that two MiG-31 jets and one Su-27 had been destroyed at the Belbek airfield, located close to the Crimean port city of Sevastopol, in Ukrainian strikes last week. Another aircraft, a MiG-29, was also damaged, The New York Times journalist Christiaan Triebert said, sharing the images to social media.

The total combat losses of the Russian Federation from 24.02.22 to 23.05.24 are estimated to be: personnel - about 497,700 (+1,330) people, tanks - 7,622 (+11) units. armored combat vehicles - 14,748 (+27) artillery systems - 12,860 (+40) MLRS - 1,077 (+0) air defense systems - 813 (+1) aircraft - 355 (+1) helicopters - 326 (+0) operational and tactical level UAVs - 10,391 (+45) cruise missiles - 2,209 (+1) ships/boats - 27 (+0) submarines - 1 (+0) 

motor vehicles and tankers - 17,513 (+71) special equipment - 2,094 (+4).

The former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024.

General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year. The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win". And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, to defend the indefensible?" Ukraine is not yet at that point.

But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops, and air defenses. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.

So what will that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives? "The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons.

"We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons."

These include the FAB glide bomb, an adapted Soviet-era "dumb bomb" fitted with fins, GPS guidance, and 1500kg of high explosives, that is wreaking havoc on Ukrainian defenses.

"At some point this summer," says Gen Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines.

"And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them."

But where? Last year the Russians knew exactly where Ukraine was likely to attack - from the direction of Zaporizhzhia south towards the Sea of Azov. They planned accordingly and successfully blunted Ukraine's advance.

One of the challenges the Ukrainians have," says Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow in land warfare at the Whitehall think tank the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), "is that the Russians can choose where they commit their forces. "It's a very long front line and the Ukrainians need to be able to defend all of it."

The Ukrainian military will lose ground," says Dr Watling. "The question is: how much and which population centers are going to be affected?"

It is quite possible that Russia's General Staff have yet to go firm on which direction to designate as their main effort. However, it is possible to broadly break down their various options into three broad locations.

As Ukraine's second city, situated perilously close to the Russian border, Kharkiv is a tempting goal for Moscow. It is currently being pummelled daily with Russian missile strikes, with Ukraine unable to field sufficient air defenses to ward off the lethal mix of drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles aimed in its direction.

I think the offensive this year will have to break out of the Donbas as its first objective," adds Gen Barrons, "and their eye will be on Kharkiv which is 29km [18 miles] or so from the Russian border, a major prize."

Could Ukraine still function as a viable entity if Kharkiv were to fall? Yes, say analysts, but it would be a catastrophic blow to both its morale and its economy.

The area of eastern Ukraine known collectively as the Donbas has been at war since 2014 when Moscow-backed separatists declared themselves "people's republics".

In 2022 Russia illegally annexed the two Donbas oblasts, or provinces, of Donetsk and Luhansk. This is where most of the fighting on land has been taking place over the past 18 months.

Ukraine has, controversially, expended enormous efforts, in both manpower and resources, in trying to hold on to first the town of Bakhmut, and then Avdiivka. It has lost both, as well as some of its best fighting troops, in the attempt.

Kyiv has countered that its resistance has inflicted disproportionately high casualties on the Russians. That is true, with the battlefield in these places being dubbed "the meat grinder".

But Moscow has plenty more troops to throw into the fight - and Ukraine does not. The Commander of US Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, has warned that unless the US rushes significantly more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine then its forces will be outgunned on the battlefield by ten to one.

Mass matters. The Russian army's tactics, leadership, and equipment may be inferior to Ukraine's, but it has such superiority in numbers, especially artillery, that if it does nothing else this year, its default option will be to keep pushing Ukraine's forces back in a westward direction, taking village after village.